In the time that there’s been this agreement, has share of any OPEC MCs gone to non-OPEC countries?
Look, OPEC won’t give any share of anything to anyone. The Persian Gulf countries won’t leave a single barrel of their market share to anyone, unless they cannot produce. Even what they cannot produce, that they won’t give that up either. Practically they don’t have it in hand, maybe they’ll tell the other side, we [give it] to you, but they haven’t been able to use it themselves. If there’s food that they can’t eat, maybe they’ll donate it somewhere. But they won’t even let one barrel go.
If you accept that Iran’s oil production will drop or its exports will drop, will we have negotiations with OPEC MCs beforehand like what we did in 2013 and 2014 for the return of Iran’s barrels to the market?
No, I’ve already written to them that, firstly rather than exports only production is part of the OPEC’s criteria. And in my previous communications I have mentioned, if anything happens to my exports or production level, after the problem is resolved, regardless of any decision, without the need for any approval at all, I will resume my original production trend. Without the need for obtaining any approval I will return to my prior production level. I’ve told this to OPEC MCs and I’ve said it repeatedly.
How do today’s sanctions and situation differ from the situation in 2011?
Well, that one was UN Security Council sanctions then. This is just the bullying of the US, at that time it was multilateral, international sanctions. Right now, no country apart from Zionist Regime and two other countries in the region — two of our Arab brothers — no one else is with the US.
But they are cooperating ...
No, it is not Cooperation… if someone is bullying and holding a sword, it is a different story ... but these sanctions are not legal and it’s not like everyone is afraid of the UN and contravening some laws.
Right now, from one perspective it’s harder and from another perspective it’s simpler. It’s harder from this point of view that the US has all the experience of the previous round, and it’s already worked out some of our methods/workarounds and therefore we have to use more complicated, new methods and the US is a lot more persistent, especially given the US have made up its mind to cut out production to a great extent in November even if in a symbolic way. In my opinion this is very symbolic for them.
And we are doing our best, making all efforts, but I don’t want to say how much and to what extent we’ve been successful, because he (the US/Trump) will find out. That [previous] round was UN-related; UN sanctions are very heavy in terms of the law, meaning that anyone who violated the sanctions was subject to all the international laws and regulations. Now this is just America that is throwing its weight around, it’s holding up a sword and calling for challenge over everyone. And now, we’ll do our best and God Willing, God will help us if we are honest.
Rick Perry, Al-Falih and Novak met recently, do you think this was just promotional/propaganda or how much was it about affecting production?
No, I think this is all mostly propaganda. The Americans routinely go to different places, following, threatening, they go here and there and doing whatever is that they do and we know about what they do. Any company that contacts us, they contact them half an hour later, they talk to them, and they routinely monitor and eavesdrop and follow and keep an eye on our managers. They are clearly following everything.
What’s your analysis of the current market conditions and in the months ahead, considering winter is ahead, what does the market need? Some more barrels?
You need to understand from price change trends. The Americans are trying really hard to prevent prices from going up until November. But if you take a look, the trend for prices right now is upwards and they bring prices down with an intervention. But if they leave it alone, the price trend is to rise and to keep rising.
What’s a suitable price for oil right now?
Right now, a suitable price is $80. Now, the higher it gets the better it is for us. But it won’t. The US and some OPEC members are not allowing it through their meddling.
Some sources have said that Saudis want high prices, i.e. above $80.
No, not right now. The US doesn’t want WTI to go up, if it goes up Trump won’t get the votes… They’re putting all their efforts into WTI not going up. He brought it under $60 and now it’s going up. As soon as it goes up, they throw in some from inventories, from here and there and they won’t ever tell the truth about what they’re doing. But the DOE report on production said that the market cannot sustain Iran’s absence from the market. It cannot tolerate Iran’s removal from the market.
Do you think that if production really drops heavily, how much will the price of oil go up; let's say in the worst case scenario?
The higher the better.
What needs to happen for these sanctions ... what has to happen, does Mr. Trump have to go? What will and needs to happen in your opinion, what can Iran do? Iran has to do something.
Right now, I don’t want to enter these discussions.
Well something has to be done; Iran can’t just keep going till it hits a dead end?
Now Trump could do so and it would be good for him to suspend the sanctions.
In Vienna I remember you saying in terms of Russia’s oil supply, we’re neither permanent friends nor enemies [in terms of oil issues] — is that still your view?
It’s always my view. It’s not about being friends, brothers or enemies.
And Russia, what’s your view on the fact that it says on the one hand it’s against the sanctions but then on the other hand it will secure oil supplies?
Ask them, you need to ask them.
Can you update us on the Iraq-Iran swap situation?
It’s underway. It’s coming on trucks and it is being received.
Do you want to increase it?
Yes, we would like to and we are after increasing it.
And in terms of selling oil to Russia, are you seeking more than the current level [100 thousand barrels]?
We are keen to provide more oil to everyone.
Is Iran using discounts more now, as a tool?
No, it’s not really that important.
So what is Iran’s position on the current agreement, will you support it?
We’ll see at the time.
Would the US be able to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero or it’s just a bluff?
I think that Mr. Trump has made such decision without consulting experts even within the US administration to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero and he insists obstinately on implementing his decision. But he recently realized that such decision is impossible and therefore he is seeking to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero, albeit symbolically, for one month. Therefore, Mr. Trump is seriously trying his best to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero. Of course, this is just one side of the coin as we have not our hands and feet tied. In addition to doing our best, we believe that divine hands are at work.